October 2, 2026 — Update to our October 1 story. Hurricane Rachel strengthened to Category 3 on Thursday and has since weakened to Category 2 as it moves west, away from Mexico. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, but dangerous surf continues through the weekend, and forecasters now give a new system an 80% chance of forming next week.
What changed since yesterday
- Strength: Rachel reached 120 mph winds (Category 3) on October 1. At 8 a.m. MST on October 2, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put its winds at 110 mph (Category 2).
- Position and track: the center was about 255 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 6 mph. The NHC forecast keeps it moving away from land. No landfall is forecast.
- Warnings: the NHC says there are “no coastal watches or warnings in effect.”
- Surf: swells are causing life-threatening surf and rip currents along the west-central Mexican coast and the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. Mexico’s weather service forecast waves of 4 to 6 metres in Baja California Sur and 3 to 5 metres in Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco and Colima.
- Local measures: the port of Cabo San Lucas is closed to all vessels. Classes are suspended across Los Cabos, and four shelters are open (two in Cabo San Lucas, two in San José del Cabo). Mexican media report at least 13 ports closed in western Mexico.
- Los Cabos airport (SJD): none of the reports we read mentioned flight disruption. Status: TBA — check with your airline.
Next storm
The NHC’s October 2 outlook says a low is expected to form south of southern Mexico late this weekend or early next week. The chance of it developing within seven days is 80%, up from 70% yesterday. A tropical depression is likely by mid-week. It has no name yet and no watches are posted.
What it means for airline travelers
- Flights: Rachel is moving away, so the main risk now is at the beach, not the airport. Still check your flight to SJD, PVR or ZLO before you leave.
- Stay out of the water. Do not swim at Pacific beaches while the surf warnings last. Boat tours and water taxis in Cabo will not run while the port is closed.
- Next week’s trips: watch NHC forecasts for the new system. If it heads for the coast, flights out will fill and standby seats will be scarce.
- Insurance: a policy bought after a storm is named may not cover that storm. Buy before the new system gets a name.
- Register your trip: use STEP (US) or Registration of Canadians Abroad.
Sources
- US National Hurricane Center (official) — Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 22
- US National Hurricane Center (official) — Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
- Gobierno de Los Cabos (official) — Protección Civil de Los Cabos activa refugios temporales y suspende clases ante huracán Rachel
- El Congresista — Huracán Rachel alcanza categoría 3 y provoca el cierre de puertos en Baja California Sur
- Informador — A esta distancia amanece el huracán Rachel de México hoy 2 de octubre
- adn40 — Huracán Rachel golpea con fuerza: Nueve estados tendrán tormenta negra este 2 de octubre
