October 7, 2026 — The Gulf low we reported yesterday is now Tropical Storm Isaias. The US National Hurricane Center issued its first watches for the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning and expects a strong hurricane to reach the coast on Friday. Florida has declared a state of emergency in 25 counties.
Where the storm is
- Advisory 4, 10 am CDT Wednesday: Isaias was about 260 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, with 45 mph winds, moving east-northeast at 8 mph.
- Forecast: Rapid strengthening. The Hurricane Center expects a hurricane by Thursday and a peak near 110 mph over the Gulf on Friday morning.
- Arrival: The centre is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Hurricane conditions could begin in the watch area late Friday. The forecast points put the centre just offshore at 7 pm CDT Friday and inland over Alabama by 7 am Saturday.
- Landfall point: Not specified (TBA). Forecasters say the models disagree and the track could still shift.
Watches in effect
| Watch | Area |
|---|---|
| Hurricane Watch | Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida |
| Storm Surge Watch | Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida |
| Tropical Storm Watch | Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line, Louisiana, to west of Bay St. Louis; and east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River, Florida |
Expected impacts
- Storm surge: 5–7 feet from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, including Mobile Bay. 3–5 feet on either side of that stretch, and 1–3 feet in Lake Pontchartrain.
- Rain: 3–6 inches, locally 10, on the northern Gulf Coast from Friday through the weekend. 1–3 inches, locally 5, across much of the Southeast.
- Wind: A rising risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and Mississippi, with long power outages possible.
- Florida: Governor Ron DeSantis declared an emergency in 25 Panhandle and Big Bend counties, including Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay and Leon.
- Not yet announced: We found no airport closures, airline travel waivers or evacuation orders when we checked, and no emergency declarations for Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama. The watches were only hours old.
What it means for airline travelers
- Airports in the watch zone include Gulfport-Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola, Destin-Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. New Orleans and Tallahassee sit in the tropical storm watch area. Expect airlines to cut flights from Friday.
- Travel before Friday if you need to get in or out. Standby seats vanish once cancellations start, and displaced revenue passengers fill flights for days afterward.
- Watch for travel waivers from your airline. They usually appear a day or two before landfall and may open rebooking options for confirmed tickets.
- Inland too: The storm is forecast to move north through Alabama on Saturday. Heavy rain and gusty winds could delay flights at Birmingham and Atlanta.
- Follow evacuation orders if you are in a surge watch area, and do not plan a Gulf Coast beach trip this weekend.
- Check the Hurricane Center before you travel. The track and the watch areas will change with each advisory.
Sources
- US National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 4
- US National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 4
- US National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Number 4
- CBS Miami: Florida prepares for Tropical Storm Isaias as DeSantis declares state of emergency in 25 counties
- Fox Weather: Tropical Storm Isaias forms in the Gulf, set to rapidly intensify into dangerous Cat 2 hurricane by Friday
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