Mexico: Hurricane Vance Threatens Heavy Rain for Colima, Jalisco and Michoacán; Guadalajara March Today

October 25, 2026 — Hurricane Vance is crawling north-northwest off Mexico’s Pacific coast. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect yet, but forecasters expect days of heavy rain over Colima, Jalisco and Michoacán — the region around Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta — with a risk of flooding and mudslides. Separately, the US Mission in Mexico warned of a large march in central Guadalajara today.

Hurricane Vance

Latest position: at 3 a.m. CST on Sunday, October 25, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed Vance near 14.3°N, 103.4°W with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, moving NNW at 5 mph. NHC’s 9 p.m. Saturday advisory put the storm about 320 miles southwest of Acapulco and 370 miles south of Manzanillo.
Watches and warnings: none in effect for Mexico as of NHC’s latest advisories. NHC urged people along the southwestern coast to keep monitoring the storm.
Rain: through Thursday, October 29, NHC forecasts 4 to 6 inches across Colima and western Michoacán and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 10 inches, and warns of possible life-threatening flooding and mudslides in steep terrain.
Surf: swells will bring dangerous surf and rip currents to southern and southwestern Mexican beaches into next week.
Mexican authorities: Mexico’s water agency Conagua downgraded Vance to Category 1, and alerts remain in place for Guerrero, Colima, Jalisco and Michoacán, SDP Noticias reported on October 24. Its forecast has Vance weakening to a tropical storm around October 28 near Manzanillo while it moves along the coast. No landfall forecast has been published (TBA).

Guadalajara: “Mega March for Water” today

The US Embassy and Consulates in Mexico issued a demonstration alert for the Guadalajara area. A march is due to leave Parque Morelos at 11 a.m. on Sunday, October 25, heading to the Palacio Municipal in the historic center. Expect heavy police presence and traffic disruption along Calle Independencia and Avenida Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla, with knock-on traffic across the city.

What it means for airline travelers

Pacific beach trips this week: if you are heading to Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta or the Michoacán coast, watch NHC and Mexico’s weather service (SMN) daily. Heavy rain can close roads and delay flights even without a direct hit.
Standby planning: if Vance’s track shifts toward the coast, airlines may thin out schedules and remaining seats will fill with rebooked passengers. Consider a backup date or a different gateway such as Guadalajara or Mexico City.
Stay out of the water where lifeguards fly red flags; rip currents are forecast well ahead of the storm.
Avoid mountain roads and river crossings during heavy rain because of the mudslide risk.
In Guadalajara today, stay clear of the march route in the historic center and allow extra time if you are driving to Guadalajara airport (GDL).
Enroll in STEP (US citizens) or Registration of Canadians Abroad, and check what your travel insurance says about weather delays and cancellations before you set off.