Mexico: Two Storm Systems at 90% Odds, One Off Oaxaca and One in the Gulf

October 6, 2026 — Update to our October 5 story. The US National Hurricane Center now gives two separate systems near Mexico a 90% chance of becoming tropical depressions. One sits off Oaxaca on the Pacific side. The other is new: a low in the southwestern Gulf that may later turn toward the US Gulf Coast.

The two systems

System	Where	Formation odds	Outlook
Pacific low (EP92)	Offshore of southern Mexico	90% in 48 hours, 90% in 7 days	Depression likely within a day or two; moving slowly west-northwest to northwest
Gulf low (AL92)	Southwestern Gulf	90% in 48 hours, 90% in 7 days	Depression expected in the next day or so; drifts east, then turns north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by week’s end

Neither system was a depression or a named storm in the outlooks issued Tuesday morning (5 am PDT and 8 am EDT). No watches or warnings were in effect, and no track or landfall time has been published (TBA).

What changed

Pacific side: Odds for the low off Oaxaca rose from 60% to 90% over 48 hours. Mexican press, citing the national weather service, placed it about 400 km south-southwest of Puerto Ángel on Tuesday morning and said it would be named Simon.
Gulf side: Odds jumped to 90%. Hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate. The Hurricane Center expects gusty wind and heavy rain on the western Yucatán Peninsula within a couple of days.
Rain: Mexican press reports a forecast of 75–150 mm for Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco, and 150–250 mm for northern and central Veracruz, in the 24 hours from 8 am Tuesday.
US Gulf Coast: The Hurricane Center asks people from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana to follow the Gulf system. Impacts there are still uncertain.
Further out: A third area south of Guatemala has a 20% chance over seven days. Hurricane Rachel is far offshore and moving away from land.

What it means for airline travelers

No airports were reported closed as of Tuesday morning. That can change quickly once a storm is named.
Pacific coast: Expect flooding and landslide risk on roads to Huatulco, Puerto Escondido and the Guerrero coast through at least October 8.
Gulf side: Heavy rain is likely around Veracruz and Tampico, then the Campeche and Mérida side of Yucatán.
Late week: New Orleans, the Mississippi and Alabama coasts and the Florida Panhandle could see disruption. If you plan to fly standby through Gulf Coast airports this weekend, have a backup routing.
Standby reality: When storms cancel flights, displaced revenue passengers fill seats for days. Leave early or wait it out.
Check the Hurricane Center before you travel. Both systems could be upgraded at any advisory.