October 8, 2026 — Update to our October 7 story. The Pacific low off Guerrero is now Tropical Storm Simon, and the forecast has changed sharply. The US National Hurricane Center expects a Category 4 hurricane to reach west-central Mexico on Saturday night or early Sunday. A hurricane watch runs from Manzanillo to Punta Mita, a stretch that includes Puerto Vallarta. On the Gulf side, Hurricane Isaias is moving away after closing schools and small ports.
Pacific side: Tropical Storm Simon
- Advisory 5, 9 am CST Thursday: Simon was about 255 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo with 65 mph winds, moving west at 5 mph.
- Hurricane Watch: Manzanillo to Punta Mita.
- Tropical Storm Watch: East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo.
- Strength: Rapid strengthening is forecast. Simon should be a hurricane later Thursday and what forecasters call a “very dangerous category 4 hurricane” before it reaches the coast. The forecast peak is 130 mph.
- Track: Slow westward motion through Thursday night, then a turn north on Friday and Saturday. The core moves inland Saturday night or early Sunday. No landfall point is named, and forecasters say the models disagree on where the turn happens.
- Timing: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the eastern watch area from Friday and expected in the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible by Saturday night.
- Rain: 8–15 inches across parts of southwestern Mexico through Sunday. 15–25 inches in places in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with a risk of life-threatening floods and mudslides.
- On the ground: Acapulco and Puerto Marqués are closed to small vessels. Michoacán suspended classes on October 8 and 9 in seven coastal municipalities.
- Airports: We found no closures or cancellations yet at Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo (TBA).
- Older reports differ: Some Mexican outlets still quote a Category 2 or 3 landfall. The Hurricane Center forecast above is newer.
Other Pacific systems
- South of Guatemala: The odds of a new system forming within seven days rose from 30% to 50%.
- Rachel: Weakened to a tropical storm far offshore. No threat to land.
Gulf side: Hurricane Isaias
- No watches or warnings for Mexico. Isaias was about 170 miles north of Progreso on Thursday morning and moving away.
- Yucatán: Classes were suspended Thursday in 27 municipalities, including Mérida and Progreso. Ten ports halted maritime activity, Progreso among them.
- Campeche: Basic-education classes were suspended statewide Thursday. The ports of Campeche and Seybaplaya are closed to all navigation.
- Small-vessel closures: The Navy lists 16 more ports in Campeche, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Yucatán. No Quintana Roo port is on the list.
- Flights: No disruption reported at Mérida, Campeche or Cancún.
What it means for airline travelers
- Puerto Vallarta, Riviera Nayarit and Manzanillo this weekend: Reconsider. If you are there, plan to leave by Friday. Standby seats disappear once a hurricane warning goes up.
- Do not fly in on a pass for Saturday or Sunday. If the airport closes, you could be stuck for days behind rebooked revenue passengers.
- Watch for airline waivers for PVR and ZLO. None had been reported when we checked.
- Already at a resort? Ask the hotel about its hurricane plan and finish preparations by Saturday, as forecasters advise.
- Acapulco, Zihuatanejo and the Michoacán coast: Heavy rain and mudslides are the risk even without a direct hit. Avoid mountain roads.
- Cancún and the Riviera Maya are not affected by either storm.
- Check the Hurricane Center each day. The landfall point is uncertain.
Sources
- US National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Simon Public Advisory Number 5
- US National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number 5
- US National Hurricane Center: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
- US National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 8
- TV Azteca: Tormenta tropical “Simon” y huracán “Isaías” hoy jueves 8 de octubre: Ubicación, trayectoria, pronóstico y estados donde provocan lluvias
- Quadratín Guerrero: Cierran puerto a la navegación en Acapulco por tormenta tropical Simón
- 5W Redactor: Suspenden clases por tormenta Simón en siete municipios de Michoacán
- El Informador: Huracán “Isaías” azota el Atlántico: Estos son todos los puertos cerrados en México
- Infobae: Huracán Isaías obliga a suspender clases en 27 municipios de Yucatán
- Por Esto: Campeche permanece bajo protocolo de emergencia por el Huracán Isaías; evacuan familias y suspenden clases
Get NonRev Travel News by email
A weekly recap newsletter, sent out every Sunday, with the airline, airport, cruise and travel-warning news that matters to airline employees and retirees. Free.
ADVERTISEMENT
