Mexico Update: Hurricane Trudy Reaches Category 3 as Hurricane Watch Covers Manzanillo

October 16, 2026 — Trudy became a major hurricane overnight and Mexico has put part of its Pacific coast under a hurricane watch, with the storm expected to approach the shoreline between Michoacán and Jalisco on Saturday and Saturday night. Manzanillo sits inside the watch area; Puerto Vallarta, just to the north, is not in it but remains in the heavy-rain zone. The US Embassy and the US Consulate General in Guadalajara have issued storm messages for US citizens.

What’s new since yesterday

Strength: Trudy reached Category 3 overnight. The US National Hurricane Center’s 6 a.m. CST advisory on Friday (advisory 12A) put maximum sustained winds at 120 mph, moving northwest at 6 mph.
Forecast: The Rio Times, citing the NHC, reports a forecast peak near 145 mph on Saturday, easing to about 130 mph Saturday evening and about 100 mph Sunday evening.
Hurricane watch: The coast from north of Punta San Telmo (Michoacán) to Playa Pérula (Jalisco). The Rio Times notes that some reports give the northern end as Cabo Corrientes.
Tropical storm warning: Punta San Telmo south to Zihuatanejo (Guerrero). Tropical storm conditions were expected in the warning area by early Saturday. More watches or warnings may be needed later Friday (TBA).
Landfall: Not confirmed (TBA). Most models keep the center just offshore, but one major model brings it inland. Mexico’s weather service does not expect landfall and says Trudy should weaken to a tropical storm near the coast. Excélsior reports the closest approach on Sunday near Playa Pérula.
Rain: 4 to 8 inches in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches, and 2 to 4 inches in Guerrero. Flooding and mudslides are possible on steep terrain.
Local alerts: Jalisco activated a yellow alert on Thursday afternoon for its southern, coastal and western mountain regions.
Airports and ports: No airport or port closures had been reported in the sources checked (TBA).

US government messaging

The US Embassy in Mexico City and the US Consulate General in Guadalajara issued weather messages on Thursday, October 15, according to The Traveler. They urge US citizens to follow NHC and Mexican civil protection bulletins and instructions from hotels and airlines, keep documents and emergency contacts handy, and prepare for power and phone outages and short-notice transport disruption. Areas named include Acapulco, Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, Lázaro Cárdenas, Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta and coastal towns in Jalisco and Nayarit.

Tropical Storm Simon

Simon continues to weaken off Baja California Sur. The NHC’s advisory 36 on Friday morning put its winds at 40 mph, and it is expected to become a remnant low within about a day. No watches or warnings are in effect for it.

What it means for airline travelers

Avoid standby trips to Manzanillo, Zihuatanejo, Puerto Vallarta or the Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco coast this weekend. If flights are cancelled, the first open seats afterward will go to stranded passengers.
Already on the coast? Consider flying out on Friday, before conditions worsen on Saturday.
Puerto Vallarta is outside the watch, but heavy rain could still cause flooding on roads to and from the airport. Check your flight status before you leave.
Watch the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) for new watches and warnings, and follow Mexico’s civil protection orders.
Stay out of the sea along the Pacific coast through the weekend.
US citizens can register with STEP and Canadians with Registration of Canadians Abroad to receive emergency updates. Check whether your travel insurance covers weather delays and extra hotel nights.