October 7, 2026 — Update to our October 6 story. The Gulf system is now Tropical Storm Isaias. It is moving away from Mexico toward the United States, but it will bring heavy rain and rough seas to the Yucatán Peninsula and the Gulf coast through Thursday. On the Pacific side, the low off Guerrero is still not a depression.
Gulf side: Tropical Storm Isaias
- Position: At 10 am CDT Wednesday, about 260 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Yucatán, moving east-northeast with 45 mph winds.
- Track: The US National Hurricane Center expects it to pass north of the Yucatán Peninsula on Thursday and reach the US Gulf Coast on Friday.
- Watches for Mexico: None were in effect in the advisories we read.
- Rain: The Hurricane Center forecasts 2 to 4 inches for the Yucatán through Thursday. Mexico’s weather service, quoted by Infobae, forecasts 75–150 mm for Campeche and Yucatán, 50–75 mm for Veracruz, Tamaulipas and Tabasco, and 25–50 mm for Quintana Roo.
- Wind and sea: Gusty winds are possible on parts of the peninsula on Thursday. Swells will bring dangerous surf and rip currents to its western and northern coasts.
- Ports: El Informador reports the ports of Tuxpan and Tecolutla closed, and a state weather alert in Veracruz.
Pacific side
| System | Where | Formation odds | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low EP92 | About 335 km south-southwest of Acapulco | 90% in 48 hours | Depression expected within a day or so; moving slowly west-northwest |
| Second area | South of Guatemala | Near 0% in 48 hours, 30% in 7 days | A low may form early next week |
| Hurricane Rachel | About 775 miles west of Baja California’s southern tip | Active hurricane | No threat to land; weakening |
The second area’s seven-day odds rose from 20% to 30%. Rain and high surf continue for Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas. No watches or warnings are in effect on the Pacific coast.
What it means for airline travelers
- No airport closures or flight cancellations in Mexico were found in today’s reports.
- Mérida, Campeche and Veracruz: Expect heavy rain and possible delays through Thursday.
- Cancún and the Riviera Maya are on the lighter edge of the rain forecast. Flights are not reported affected.
- Stay out of the water on the Gulf-facing beaches of Yucatán and Campeche while the swell lasts. Small-boat trips may be cancelled.
- Acapulco, Huatulco and Puerto Escondido: Watch for the Pacific low to be named. Flooded roads are the main risk.
- Connecting through the US Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday? See our United States story. Cancellations there will fill other flights.
Sources
- US National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 4
- US National Hurricane Center: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
- US National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 42
- Infobae: Tormenta Tropical Isaias se forma en el golfo de México: provocará lluvias en Campeche, Yucatán, Veracruz, Tamaulipas y Tabasco
- El Informador: Tormenta tropical Isaías se forma en el Golfo de México y amenaza como futuro huracán
- TV Azteca: No solo es la tormenta tropical “Isaías”: SMN vigila dos zonas de baja presión en el Pacífico
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