Mexico: Pacific Low Likely to Become a Storm Off Oaxaca; Torrential Rain Forecast Through October 8

October 5, 2026 — The US National Hurricane Center on Monday raised the odds that a low-pressure area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec becomes a tropical cyclone to 50% within 48 hours and 90% within seven days. A second system has appeared in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and Mexico’s weather service forecasts torrential rain in the south through Thursday. No watches or warnings are in effect, and no airport closures or deaths were reported.

The details

System	Where	Chance in 48 hours	Chance in 7 days
Pacific low	About 340 km south-southeast of Huatulco, Oaxaca	50% (was 20% Sunday)	90%
Gulf trough	Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, along the coast	10%	50% (was 40%)
Hurricane Rachel	About 365 miles west-southwest of Baja California’s southern tip	Active, 100 mph winds	Slowly weakening

Pacific low: forecast to move slowly west-northwest to northwest, staying just offshore of the southern and southwestern coast. If named, it would be Simon. Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero are expected to feel it most.
Gulf system: a tropical depression could form by mid to late week, drifting east and then turning north.
Rain: Mexico’s weather service forecasts 150 to 250 mm in Chiapas and Tabasco and 75 to 150 mm in Guerrero, Oaxaca and Veracruz from October 5 to 8, with flash-flood and landslide risk and waves of 2 to 3.5 metres on both coasts.
Hurricane Rachel: no coastal watches or warnings. Swells continue to bring dangerous surf and rip currents to the Baja California coast for the next couple of days.
Popocatépetl: alert level unchanged at Yellow Phase 2, with no airport impact reported.

What it means for airline travelers

Huatulco, Puerto Escondido, Acapulco and Zihuatanejo are the airports to watch this week. Small resort airports have few daily flights, so one cancelled rotation can strand standby travelers for days.
If you are already there and the forecast firms up, leave early rather than on the last flight before the storm.
Los Cabos travelers should stay out of the surf while Rachel’s swells last.
Check the National Hurricane Center outlook each morning; it updates every six hours.
Standard travel insurance usually will not cover a storm that was already forecast when you bought the policy.