Mexico Update: Hurricane Trudy Forecast to Become Major Hurricane Near Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta

October 15, 2026 — Trudy strengthened into a hurricane early Thursday and is forecast to become a major hurricane on Friday as it heads for Mexico’s southwestern and west-central Pacific coast this weekend. Manzanillo, in Colima state, faces the highest risk, and Puerto Vallarta is also in the forecast zone. Tropical Storm Simon, which had threatened Los Cabos, was sitting almost still off the coast on Thursday morning.

Hurricane Trudy

Latest: The US National Hurricane Center’s 3 a.m. CST advisory on Thursday put Trudy at Category 1 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, moving northwest at 9 mph.
Forecast: The NHC expects rapid strengthening, with Trudy becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) on Friday. The Rio Times, citing the NHC, reports a forecast peak of about 130 mph on Saturday.
Where: The storm is expected to pass very close to the coast between Punta San Telmo in Michoacán and Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco this weekend. The NHC gave Manzanillo a 78% chance of tropical-storm-force winds within five days and Puerto Vallarta 29%, according to the Rio Times.
Rain: The NHC forecasts 4 to 8 inches of rain in Colima and Jalisco through the weekend, with isolated totals near 12 inches, and 2 to 4 inches in Guerrero and Michoacán, with possible flash flooding.
Surf: Swells from late this week through the weekend are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Watches and warnings: None were in force at the last advisory checked for this report. The NHC said watches would likely be needed Thursday for parts of the coast (TBA).
Landfall: No landfall time has been forecast (TBA). AccuWeather notes that a track shift of 50 to 100 miles could greatly change the impact on the coast.

Tropical Storm Simon

Simon has weakened from a hurricane and was nearly stationary on Thursday morning, with winds of 60 mph, according to the NHC. Interests in Baja California Sur, including Los Cabos, were told to keep monitoring it. AccuWeather says Simon could drift along the west side of the Baja Peninsula from this weekend into early next week, or stall and fade near Baja California Sur.

What it means for airline travelers

Avoid planning standby trips to Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta or the Colima and Jalisco coast this weekend. If the storm closes airports, open seats on the first flights out afterward will be taken by stranded passengers.
Already there? Consider leaving before the storm approaches this weekend, rather than waiting to see where it goes.
Check the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) for coastal watches and warnings, which are expected to be issued soon, and follow orders from Mexico’s civil protection authorities.
Stay out of the sea along the Pacific coast through the weekend, even far from the storm’s center, because of dangerous surf and rip currents.
For Los Cabos, Simon is weaker but still unpredictable. Check your flight status before leaving for the airport.
US citizens can register with STEP and Canadians with Registration of Canadians Abroad to receive emergency updates. Check whether your travel insurance covers weather delays.